New Climate Models Predict Increased Flooding Events

Thursday, July 11, 2013

A recent study from the journal Nature Climate Change gives credence to the fear that climate change will increase flood frequency around the world. Until this recent study, climate models were uncertain about how climate change would increase flooding. Unlike previous research, the updated climate models include river runoff as well as a range of GHG scenarios over the next few decades. The new science matches observed patterns of increased precipitation, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and predicts that 100-year flood events will increase most in Southeast Asia and Africa. There is still a considerable degree of uncertainty in these climate models, however, and they do not predict increased flooding for North America, despite recent flooding events in Calgary and Toronto, which have made major news headlines. The new models also are uncertain as to what will happen in Central Europe. The study predicts that between 27 and 93 million people will be affected annually by floods.

A recent article by Andrew Feedman at Climate Central explains the new study, relating it to the recent flooding in Calgary.