What does transformative change in the energy sector look like? Is a low carbon pathway achievable? The Trottier Energy Futures Project (TEFP) released a report this month examining these questions. Using national, long-range low-carbon scenarios from eight industrialized countries, the report captures key elements of what transformative change means and what needs to happen now in order to achieve climate targets of 80% emissions reductions by 2050. All scenarios exhibited continued growth in populations and gross domestic products (GDP).
In the eight low carbon scenarios, four common themes emerge – efficiency, electrification, decarbonization and biomass. In all scenarios significant improvements in energy efficiency was critical. Policy incentives and regulatory instruments could enable this transition to occur on a sectoral basis.
The second, a low-hanging fruit for BC and to a lesser extent, Canada at large, is to rely on electricity for heating, transportation and, where possible, industrial processes. Sweden has electrified its energy use more than any other country with 33% of end-use energy provided by electricity. Of course fuel sources and types of energy used to generate this electricity is a paramount consideration. In Sweden, 58% of its electricity supply comes from renewables (hydro and biomass) and 38% comes from nuclear power.
This leads to the third common finding - that low or zero carbon futures must rely on clean sources of electricity. In all countries (with exception of the UK) fossil fuel shares drop by 50% or more while shares of renewables and carbon-free energy grow dramatically. The report relied on levels and rates of new technology deployment that were larger than historical experience and that contributed to considerable efficiency improvements to achieve lower per capita energy consumption. The technology exists. The question becomes how to deploy at this increased rate.
The widespread deployment of biofuels into the contemporary economy was also a characteristic common in the eight scenarios. Transitioning from heavy fuels to lighter, more sustainable fuel sources such as electricity and biomass will require long-range economic and infrastructure planning.
What the report identifies is that transformative change is possible. The magnitude of the transition to a low carbon future is considerable, yet doable. The calculus shows that relatively high initial investment costs are levelized over time through efficiency savings. What is required are appropriately timed efficiency and low-carbon improvements and the collective and coordinated action to begin planning for them now. As Ralph Torrie, Managing Director of the Trottier project says, “ this means the challenge for policy-makers and investors, designers and front-line practitioners is to push those options as far as they’ll go”.
Ready, set, go.