Post submitted by:
Manjana Milkoreit
Postdoctoral Scholar, Global Institute of Sustainability
Arizona State University
@ManjanaM
I would like to share some recent research results, which might offer some food for thought in the run-up to COP-19 in Warsaw this coming November. My work explores the role of cognition – the elements, structures and processes of individual and collective thought and emotion – in finding effective, cooperative solutions to global climate change.
Visualizing current belief systems of participants in the global climate negotiations with a tool called cognitive-affective mapping (CAM), I identify a number of cognitive obstacles to multilateral cooperation. The most important obstacle is a clash of two types of substantively and emotionally different belief systems. Depending on the specific constellation of a person’s beliefs about collective identity, perceptions of climate change-related risks, and associated emotions, their belief system could be described either as deontological, in which rights- and obligations-based norms of justice are dominant, or as consequentialist, reflecting mainly rational considerations concerning costs and benefits.
Focusing in particular on the “wicked” characteristics of climate change, my analysis further reveals a neglect of scientific knowledge, in particular knowledge of the possibility of climate tipping points, a serious undervaluation of the distant future, and perceptions of a number of constraints on agency, some of which cannot be resolved within the negotiations.
Finally, the study identifies, describes and compares six distinct belief systems among climate negotiators, which I label Multilateralism Champions, UN Skeptics, Utilizing the Market, The Power of Individuals, Climate Justice, and Spotlight on the West. The key element distinguishing these belief systems is actor type, which affects problem definitions, proposed solutions, and political strategies. Actor types are different groups or entities that take part in the political process and are believed to have agency. These include, for example, the international community of states, particular groups of states like the developing countries, individuals, markets, or all of humanity.